Forecast Rain Expected to Increase Water Levels

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook

2025 Flood Event 1, Bulletin Number 5 (Issued 2025-03-13 at 16:15; Valid until 2025-03-20 at 12:00)

A gradual melting of the snowpack in the Upper Thames River Conservation Authority (UTRCA) watershed has been occurring since March 3, with most snow in the southern portion of the watershed depleted. Water levels have remained elevated over this period.  An estimated 50 mm of snow water equivalent (SWE) remains in the northern areas of the watershed.

With warmer temperatures expected tomorrow and into the weekend, along with 20-25 mm of rain forecast for Saturday and Sunday, any remaining snow will melt and bring water levels back up to those experienced last week, or possibly slightly higher, on the North Thames River, and downstream of the Forks of the Thames.  There remains uncertainty as to the amount of precipitation, snow coverage and remaining snow water equivalent in the snowpack, which may lead to the need for flood bulletin updates tomorrow or over the weekend.  Peaks are expected to develop starting Saturday and continue into Sunday and water levels will remain high into next week.  Serious flooding is not expected at this time.

Flood storage remains at UTRCA’s flood control reservoirs at Fanshawe, Wildwood, and Pittock Conservation Areas. These reservoirs will be operated to reduce downstream flooding.

The UTRCA is monitoring the situation and will report on any changing conditions if necessary.

Residents may be under the impression that the melt has passed. They are reminded to remain vigilant, particularly as it is the March school break. Use extreme caution near all watercourses and stay out of all flooded areas. Stream banks can be slippery and unstable, and the water is cold and fast-moving. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from watercourses.