Rain and Warm Temperatures Forecast over the Next Several Days (flood bulletin, Dec 29, 2022-Jan 2, 2023)

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY

Issued December 29, 2022 at 5:25 pm; valid until January 02, 2023

A low pressure weather system that is moving across Ontario is sweeping a warm and moist air mass from the south-central United States into Ontario, bringing above zero temperatures to a large portion of the province. A second low pressure system is forecast to move through southern Ontario on Friday and Saturday, and is expected to bring drizzle, showers, and periods of rain with accumulated precipitation amounts from 25 to 40 mm.

Daytime high temperatures over much of southern Ontario on Thursday, December 29 to Sunday, January 1 are expected to be +5 degrees C or higher, with overnight temperatures remaining above freezing. These conditions will melt the snowpack over the coming days, with water levels in streams and rivers responding to the runoff from the forecast rain and melting snow. Water levels are expected to be elevated over the weekend and into next week. Serious flooding is not expected at this time.

The Upper Thames River Conservation Authority’s (UTRCA) flood control reservoirs at Fanshawe, Wildwood, and Pittock Conservation Areas are at seasonal levels and will be operated to reduce downstream flooding if required. UTRCA officials are monitoring the situation and will report any changing conditions.

Residents are reminded to use extreme caution near all watercourses. Stream banks can be slippery and unstable and the water may be higher than normal and quickly become fast-moving. Any ice cover will be weak and unstable. Flood control reservoirs are especially hazardous due to fluctuating water levels. With schools closed over the holiday period, caregivers are reminded to keep children and pets away from watercourses.