Rain and Warm Temperatures Forecast Over the Next Several Days (flood bulletin, February 8-13, 2023
WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY
Issued February 8, 2023 at 4:30 pm; Valid until: February 13, 2023
On Thursday, a low-pressure system is expected to move into the province, bringing widespread showers to the region. Total rain accumulation across southern Ontario is forecast to reach 20-25 mm by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to go above zero early tomorrow morning and reach double digits by the afternoon, before returning to below freezing early Friday morning.
The Upper Thames River Conservation Authority (UTRCA) estimates the Upper Thames basin contains 30-35 mm of water equivalent in the snowpack, fairly evenly distributed spatially. The incoming weather conditions will begin to melt this snowpack, with water levels in streams and rivers responding to the runoff from the forecast rain and melting snow. The UTRCA expects water levels to rise tomorrow afternoon and into Friday, and to remain above normal over the weekend. Serious flooding is not expected at this time.
The UTRCA’s flood control reservoirs at Fanshawe, Wildwood, and Pittock Conservation Areas are at seasonal levels and will be operated to reduce downstream flooding if required. UTRCA officials are monitoring the situation, and will report any changing conditions.
Parents are encouraged to keep children and pets away from all watercourses and off of frozen water bodies. As water levels rise, it is not safe to take shelter along riverbanks or in low lying areas that are prone to flooding. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery and, when combined with cold, fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard.
The public is also reminded to exercise extreme caution and stay off all frozen water bodies. Any ice cover will be weakened and unstable. Flood control reservoirs will be especially hazardous due to fluctuating water levels.