Spring Melt Possible this Week (flood bulletin, February 16-20, 2022)

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY

Issued February 16, 2022 at 9:55 am; Valid until: February 20, 2022

The Upper Thames River basin currently has a typical snowpack for this time of year. The snow survey conducted by the Upper Thames River Conservation Authority (UTRCA) staff on February 15, 2022, indicated approximately 60 – 90 mm of water equivalent across the watershed, dependent upon location, with an average value of about 70 mm.

A low pressure system is expected to track northeast across Lake Erie, starting today, continuing into tomorrow evening, and expected to bring with it a messy mix of wintry precipitation to southwestern Ontario. Different precipitation forecasts range from 25 – 50 mm, beginning this evening and continuing until tomorrow afternoon. At this time the track of the low pressure system is uncertain, and as such, precipitation type, timing, and amounts may change.

Temperatures are expected to remain above zero, within single digits, beginning this morning, and continuing into tomorrow evening, before a return to below freezing temperatures. This warming trend, combined with the forecast rain, will consolidate and begin to melt the snowpack. As there is uncertainty in the rain totals and type, there is also uncertainly in the forecast of runoff amounts. If higher rainfall totals materialize, expect streams to rise to levels normally experienced during spring runoff, with minor flooding in low lying areas and park lands. If the lower amounts of precipitation occur, the system will see less runoff, and rivers and streams should remain within their banks, as warm temperatures alone are not enough to cause significant melting.

The UTRCA’s flood control reservoirs at Fanshawe, Wildwood, and Pittock Conservation Areas are at seasonal levels and will be operated to reduce any downstream flooding. UTRCA officials are monitoring the situation, and will report on any changing conditions if necessary.

The public is reminded to exercise extreme caution and stay off all water bodies. Any ice cover will be weakened and unstable. Flood control reservoirs will be especially hazardous due to fluctuating water levels. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery and, when combined with cold, fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard. Parents are encouraged to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses and off of frozen water bodies.

Contact: Emily Chandler, Research and Communications Assistant